SINGAPORE: Asian stocks stuttered on Thursday, while oil prices stabilised and the euro was perched at a 3-1/2-year high as investors weighed geopolitical, economic and fiscal uncertainties as they braced for U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline on tariffs.
Markets have been soothed by a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that appeared to be holding, reducing the risks of disruptions to the global oil trade and underpinning sentiment.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed in early trading, as the rally in Wall Street took a breather overnight. Tokyo’s Nikkei rose 0.9% to a four-month high.
The U.S. dollar selling kicked up a notch after a media report said Trump has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s replacement by September or October in a bid to undermine his position.
That pushed the euro to its strongest level since November 2021. It last fetched $1.6805. The Swiss franc firmed to a decade-high while the Japanese yen strengthened 0.35% to 144.70 per dollar.
Asia markets stabilise, dollar droops following Middle East truce
Trump has repeatedly criticised Powell for not cutting interest rates and has floated the idea of firing him or naming a successor soon, denting investor confidence in U.S. assets and undermining the central bank’s independence.
“I think it’s a given that Trump’s pick to succeed Powell, when it comes, will be one that sits at the highly dovish end of the spectrum and will support Trump’s agenda of lowering interest rates,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
“The issue with this is it will resurface questions from earlier in the year around the Fed’s independence, which, as we saw, undermines confidence in the Fed and the USD.”
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, wallowed at its lowest level since March 2022. The index has slid 10% this year as investors, worried by Trump’s tariffs and their impact on U.S. growth, look for alternatives.
Financial markets remain on edge over Trump’s chaotic trade policies as the clock ticks down to his July 9 deadline for trade deals.
Powell, who resumed two days of congressional testimony on Wednesday, said Trump’s tariff plans may well just cause a one-time jump in prices, but the risk it could fuel more persistent inflation is large enough for the central bank to be careful in considering further rate cuts.
Fed officials still expect to cut interest rates this year, but the timing is uncertain as officials wait on looming trade deadlines and for more certainty about the scope of the tariffs that will be imposed and the ways that rising import levies influence prices and economic growth.
“No one knows exactly how tariffs will impact inflation, which will keep central banks in conservative mode, particularly the Fed,” said Bank of America strategists, noting downside risks to global growth remain relevant, not only due to trade wars but also due to geopolitical developments.
“We are carefully monitoring fiscal policy across key countries that can affect global interest rates. Unsustainable fiscal dynamics can trigger an accident in bond markets,” they said in a note.
In commodities, oil prices inched higher to continue recovering after a volatile month so far due to the conflict between longtime rivals Israel and Iran.
Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $67.82 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained 0.28% to $65.1.
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